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科技取胜 制造业未来在美国而非中国

科技取胜 制造业未来在美国而非中国

2012-07-18 08:44

来源: 看中国

【看中国记者苏珊编译】

外交政策网站7月17日(周二)发表了题为“制造业未来在美国而非中国”(The Future of Manufacturing Is in America, Not China)的文章,文中谈到新科技将如何引领美国制造业回流。以下是译文:

上周曝光的美国奥运制服将在中国制造引起了轩然大波。“他们应该将这些制服堆在一起,烧了它,” 愤怒的参议员里德说道。这个事情触及到了美国人为丢失制造业的工作愤怒与担忧(的神经)。被政府补助、廉价劳动力、松懈的法规和操纵货币所吸引,在近几十年美国制造业涌向了中国,随之而来的是数百万个美国工作的流失。因对于这种情形的担心,而不是奥运制服本身,引发了上周美国国会的喧嚣。

(为美国奥运队设计制服的)拉尔夫•劳伦(Ralph Lauren)贝雷帽(beret)的制造除外(编辑注:因为该公司将在中国制造美国奥运制服),更大的情势转变显示,潮流已经转向,是中国开始担忧的时候了。很多执行长,包括陶氏化学的利伟诚(Dow Chemicals’ Andrew Liveris)已经公开宣布他们的计划,将工厂移回美国。加速这种趋势的转向的原因,并不是像人们所相信的是因中国工资上涨或人民币升值的成本上升。中国真正威胁是来自科技。科技的转向将导致中国制造业出现像美国产业在过去二十年来一样的集体外移。

几种技术的突破和融合将导致这种情形的发生。

首先是机器人科技。现代机器人不是我们熟悉在科幻电影中看到的机器人或拟人化机器人(Cylons),而是专门的机电化装置,通过软件和遥控运行。随着计算机变得更进步,也增加这些设备的能力。机器人现在能够进行手术,挤牛奶,做军事上侦察和作战和驾驶战斗机。有几家公司,如Willow Garage,iRobot,和9th Sense,出售机器人开发工具包给大学生和开源社区,来开发更加复杂的应用程序。

再有就是人工智能(AI) – 软件使得计算机即便没有人类那样的智能,至少也能以假乱真。IBM深蓝计算机一项基本技术曾经在1997年击败国际象棋特级大师卡斯帕罗夫,IBM的沃森在2011年击败电视智力竞赛节目Jeopardy的冠军。人工智能可以发展自动驾车,语音识别系统如iPhone的SIRI和Face.com这个脸书公司最近获得的面部识别软件(都是人工智能的应用)。

美国有这些先进的科技创新能力,拆除旧产业,不断改造自己。中国人现在忙于复制美国在过去几十年所创造出的科技。他们还没有学会突破创新。

The Future of Manufacturing Is in America, Not China

How new technology is driving a U.S. industrial comeback.

BY VIVEK WADHWA |JULY 17, 2012

A furor broke out last week after it was reported that the uniforms of U.S. Olympians would be manufactured in China. “They should take all the uniforms, put them in a big pile, and burn them,” said an apoplectic Sen. Harry Reid. The story tapped into the anger — and fear — that Americans feel about the loss of manufacturing to China. Seduced by government subsidies, cheap labor, lax regulations, and a rigged currency, U.S. industry has rushed to China in recent decades, with millions of American jobs lost. It is these fears, rather than the Olympic uniforms themselves, that triggered last week’s congressional uproar.

But Ralph Lauren berets aside, the larger trends show that the tide has turned, and it is China’s turn to worry. Many CEOs, including Dow Chemicals’ Andrew Liveris, have declared their intentions to bring manufacturing back to the United States. What is going to accelerate the trend isn’t, as people believe, the rising cost of Chinese labor or a rising yuan. The real threat to China comes from technology. Technical advances will soon lead to the same hollowing out of China’s manufacturing industry that they have to U.S industry over the past two decades.

Several technologies advancing and converging will cause this.

First, robotics. The robots of today aren’t the androids or Cylons that we are used to seeing in science fiction movies, but specialized electromechanical devices run by software and remote control. As computers become more powerful, so do the abilities of these devices. Robots are now capable of performing surgery, milking cows, doing military reconnaissance and combat, and flying fighter jets. Several companies, such Willow Garage, iRobot, and 9th Sense, sell robot-development kits for which university students and open-source communities are developing ever more sophisticated applications.

The factory assembly that China is currently performing is child’s play compared to the next generation of robots — which will soon become cheaper than human labor. One of China’s largest manufacturers, Taiwan-based Foxconn Technology Group, announced last August that it plans to install one million robots within three years to do the work that its workers in China presently do. It has found even low-cost Chinese labor to be too expensive and demanding.

Then there is artificial intelligence (AI) — software that makes computers, if not intelligent in the human sense, at least good enough to fake it. This is the basic technology that IBM’s Deep Blue computer used to beat chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov in 1997 and that enabled IBM’s Watson to beat TV-show Jeopardy champions in 2011. AI is making it possible to develop self-driving cars, voice-recognition systems such as the iPhone’s Siri, and Face.com, the face-recognition software Facebook recently acquired.

Neil Jacobstein, who chairs the AI track at the Silicon Valley-based graduate program Singularity University, says that AI technologies will find their way into manufacturing and make it “personal”: that we will be able to design our own products at home with the aid of AI design assistants. He predicts a “creator economy” in which mass production is replaced by personalized production, with people customizing designs they download from the Internet or develop themselves.

How will we turn these designs into products? By “printing” them at home or at modern-day Kinko’s — shared public manufacturing facilities such as TechShop, a membership-based manufacturing workshop, using new manufacturing technologies that are now on the horizon.

A type of manufacturing called “additive manufacturing” is now making it possible to cost-effectively “print” products. In conventional manufacturing, parts are produced by humans using power-driven machine tools, such as saws, lathes, milling machines, and drill presses, to physically remove material until you’re left with the shape desired. This is a cumbersome process that becomes more difficult and time-consuming with increasing complexity. In other words, the more complex the product you want to create, the more labor is required and the greater the effort.

In additive manufacturing, parts are produced by melting successive layers of materials based on three-dimensional models — adding materials rather than subtracting them. The “3D printers” that produce these parts use powered metal, droplets of plastic, and other materials — much like the toner cartridges that go into laser printers. This allows the creation of objects without any sort of tools or fixtures. The process doesn’t produce any waste material, and there is no additional cost for complexity. Just as, thanks to laser printers, a page filled with graphics doesn’t cost much more than one with text (other than the cost of toner), with 3D printers we can print a sophisticated 3D structure for what it would cost to print something simple.

Three-D printers can already create physical mechanical devices, medical implants, jewelry, and even clothing. The cheapest 3D printers, which print rudimentary objects, currently sell for between $500 and $1,000. Soon, we will have printers for this price that can print toys and household goods. By the end of this decade, we will see 3D printers doing the small-scale production of previously labor-intensive crafts and goods. It is entirely conceivable that, in the next decade, manufacturing will again become a local industry and it will be possible to 3D print electronics and use giant 3D printing scaffolds to print entire buildings. Why would we ship raw materials all the way to China and then ship completed products back to the United States when they can be manufactured more cheaply locally, on demand?

Other advances in the next decade will likely affect manufacturing, particularly advances in nanotechnology that change the equation further. Engineers and scientists are today developing new types of materials, such as carbon nanotubes, ceramic-matrix nanocomposites, and new carbon fibers. These new materials make it possible to create products that are stronger, lighter, more energy-efficient, and more durable than existing manufactured goods. A new field — “molecular manufacturing” — will take this one step further and make it possible to program molecules inexpensively, with atomic precision. “Over the next two decades,” Jacobstein says, “molecular manufacturing will do for our relationship with molecules and matter what the computer did for our relationship with bits and information — make the precise control of molecules and matter inexpensive and ubiquitous.”

All of these advances play well into America’s ability to innovate, demolish old industries, and continually reinvent itself. The Chinese are still busy copying technologies we built over the past few decades. They haven’t cracked the nut on how to innovate yet.

It’s a near certainty that robotics, AI, and 3D-printing technologies will advance rapidly and converge. American companies are already finding the rising cost of labor, shipping costs and time lags, and intellectual-property protection to be major issues in doing business in China. And the Chinese government has done itself no favor by hoarding key raw materials such as rare-earth minerals, forcing Western manufacturers to start looking for alternatives. The most advanced automobile of today — the Tesla Roadster — is already being manufactured in the United States using robotic and AI technologies. Google just announced that it will produce its highly-acclaimed Nexus 7 tablet in the United States. This is just the beginning of the trend.

So, let me predict a future headline: “Protests break out in China over 2020 Summer Olympic uniforms, 3D-printed with U.S.-made technology.”

中国事务http://www.chinaaffairs.org转载

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